Ferenc Toth is founder of Your Personal Bank TM. He is passionate about helping people gain control of their money, create tax-favored income, and having access to more funds over their lifetime! Ferenc is a voice for common sense. He cuts through the noise to help us understand how current events affect our money.
The US added $11.8 Trillion of debt since 2020.
The government owes $108,000 for every American, man, woman, and child.
Deficit spending as % of GDP is at World War 2 levels.
25% of government receipts pay interest on the debt annually.
The massive debt will push interest rates upwards until the government starts paying down the debt significantly. This will increase the cost of purchasing autos and homes for most Americans.
Americans have record household debt.
Credit card and auto loans debt is at all time highs.
The Buffett Indicator shows US stocks are overvalued at 200% of GDP, one of the highest levels in history.
Corporate insiders are selling shares at a record pace in the 4th quarter of 2024.
Goldman Sachs states it is time for investors to diversify.
Blackrock, Goldmann Sachs, and Vanguard all predict low stock returns (3-5% annually) for the next decade.
Many financial experts are calling this the “golden age” of fixed investments.
Even if the Trump administration does everything right, some problems will take a while to fix. Debt is a major challenge.
Record levels of debt requires record selling of bonds. This pushes bond interest rates higher.
Until the government starts paying down debt, bond interest rates will remain elevated.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is lowering borrowing costs by reducing interest rates.
This creates an opportunity.
Your Personal Bank allows you to earn dividends (likely increasing) while accessing funds to pay off debt, purchase items, or invest in assets.
If dividends are higher than the borrowing costs, you keep the difference. This creates positive cash flow (positive arbitrage) on your money.
We are likely headed to a historical positive arbitrage scenario.
Historically, positive arbitrage has been available 24 of the past 28 years. The other 4 years the dividends and borrowing costs were similar. The average annual positive arbitrage was 2-3%. This is interest you earn on money you spent or allocated elsewhere!